The Worldwide Rise of Extreme Drought — And Its Impact on Coffee
Coffee futures are on an extended price rally during the past few months. Newspaper headlines broadcast this bad news to consumers anxious about inflation. Behind the daily news story is a new fact of life driving this trend: supplies have become tighter and less predictable, due to extreme weather, which itself is the direct result of climate change.
World Coffee Research surveyed some of the growing body of scientific literature and found conclusions which “confirm predictions of 50 percent reduction in land area suitable for Arabica coffee production by 2050.” Researchers have become especially worried about dramatic losses in Brazil, including in the large hotdry regions that have largely become unsuitable for cultivation (per World Coffee Research).
The problem is bigger than Brazil. A study published by the science journal PLOS One echoed World Coffee Research’s (WCR) findings that Arabica coffee faces up to 50 percent loss of suitable growing areas by 2050, particularly in the bean’s major producing countries like Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Colombia. Clearly, is the right time to consider the implications of worsening drought conditions in most of the world’s key coffee-growing climates. To better understand what the new water-stress findings mean for the future of coffee production in those countries, we consulted with some of the most notable climate experts.
Kaveh Zahedi and Hideki Kanamaru, natural resources officers with the UN Food & Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Office of Climate Change, Biodiversity and Environment, found a growing body of research sounding the alarm over the future of coffee. “By 2050, up to half of the current coffee-growing land may no longer be viable due to a changing climate.
Without swift and substantial action, the viability of coffee as a global commodity could be in jeopardy. The impacts are already being felt: global coffee prices surged to multi-year highs last year, driven by weather disruptions in major producing countries,” they shared.
The scientists are in agreement about the drought hitting major coffee regions – especially Brazil – it is unprecedented, with soil moisture dropping dramatically and evaporation (driven by warming) exacerbating impacts. Modelling confirms that by mid-century, global growing areas for Arabica could drop by half, especially in Ethiopia, Brazil, Mesoamerica, and East Africa. Experts warn that without climate mitigation and climate adaptation; coffee may become increasingly scarce and expensive – triggering supply chain disruptions and quality decline (“flavour-flation” ). For example, soil moisture data from Fundação Procafé in Minas Gerais showed a water deficit of 300mm at the end of the dry season in October 2024 – far exceeding 2023’s 110mm deficit and long-term surplus levels.
The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (2024 – 2025) data point to Brazil enduring its “most intense and widespread drought in history,” critically impacting coffee flowering and yields. One NOAAUCLA study notes that since 2000, increased evaporation (driven by rising temperatures) now accounts for a majority (61 percent) of drought severity – showing climate change amplifying drought beyond just lack of rainfall. In Ethiopia, research by London-based Kew Gardens shows that under a +4°C warming scenario, current coffee-growing areas could shrink by up to 60 percent – and still by around 55 percent under milder warming. In Tanzania, rising night-time temperatures and drought are forecast to reduce yields significantly, pushing optimum zones upslope by 150 – 200m, which threatens biodiversity and farmland.
Dr Miguel Altieri (University of California, Berkeley’s professor of agroecology in the Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management) explained that “Brazilian Arabica coffee production is threatened by high temperatures linked to climate change. The abandonment of traditional systems where coffee was grown under various shade trees exacerbated such vulnerability.” He said many studies have shown that shade trees protect crops from high temperatures and, during extended dry periods, shade increases soil moisture and air humidity. “The only sensible adaptation strategy is therefore to return to biodiverse resilient coffee systems as done by thousands of small farmers in Central America and parts of Colombia.”
When asked about drought and climate impacts, Fairtrade International’s senior advisor on coffee, Colleen Anunu said that “coffee farmers have experienced decades of low prices resulting in long term effects that cannot be rectified easily. Farmer revenues have been in constant decline because of these sustained low prices for coffee while prices for labour, inputs, and logistics are all increasing, leading to underinvestment in farms and lower yields that become exacerbated by climate change.” She added that a shifting regulatory environment is causing huge cost and administrative burdens on coffee farmers and their cooperatives. “Even with today’s high pricing market, coffee farmers are largely unable to meet their costs of production, let alone achieve a living income.”
Fairtrade works with smallholder farmers. In fact, some 95 percent of coffee farms are smaller than five hectares. These small farms produce about three-quarters of the world’s coffee. The remaining quarter is produced by large coffee estates. “These smallholder farmers face several challenges, including negotiating with international buyers to earn enough for a decent standard of living, difficult working conditions, and climate change that is increasingly pushing farmers to shift production areas and change their approach,” said Anunu.
The Fairtrade Coffee Dashboard provides tools, such as the number of SPOs and Coffee Production Volumes, while its ‘risk map’ visualises impacts.
Dr Ernesto Méndez serves on the leadership team of the Institute for Agroecology as co-director and is professor of agroecology at the University of Vermont’s Department of Agriculture, Landscape, and Environment. After 26 years of work with coffee smallholders he’s concluded that “there’s no question that climate change is affecting coffee regions and communities around the world. Coffee shrubs are very sensitive to weather conditions for their development. For a coffee plant to flower, it needs to have just the right amount of moisture and temperature. The right conditions are also necessary for the flowers to set and then become the coffee cherries that are harvested.” He added that an extreme weather event can result in flowers dropping from the plant, resulting in loss of coffee cherry production. “Several weather conditions complicate coffee production, including the amount and timing of rainfall, temperature ranges and changes, as well as cloud cover.”
Méndez’s research shows that for most of coffee’s history it was less common for extreme weather to damage plantations on a regular basis. “However, this has drastically changed in the last two decades. In 2015, I visited coffee farms in the region of Copán Honduras. For the first time in all my years of researching coffee, I heard farmers discussing the need for irrigation. They were worried that the erratic behaviour of the rainfall might result in reduced coffee flowering or preventing flowers from setting. We discussed how complicated it could be, given the mountainous terrain where most coffee plantations are located. Since then, climatic conditions have only gotten more erratic and extreme.”
Méndez thinks that, although coffee suitability models are useful to predict future coffee suitability in different scenarios, they are not flawless. “The suitability of a coffee region is the result of the interaction of a diversity of factors, including climatic conditions, but also soil, management practices, coffee varieties, etc. Farmers can adapt in a lot of different ways to changing climate conditions, and it is hard to accurately predict which farmers might have to abandon the crop entirely. That said, supporting farmers to adapt, including growing other crops seems like the best precautionary strategy.”
At the FAO, Zahedi and Kanamaru have concluded that “Incremental fixes like better water management and farming practices help but will not be enough. We need transformative moves, such as shifting to sustainable agroforestry; developing drought- and heat- tolerant varieties; and redesigning the entire supply chain – from farm to cup – for long-term sustainability. They help farmers to adapt while reducing emissions from coffee production.”
On a hopeful note, climate adaptation efforts are now underway. Organisations like World Coffee Research and Embrapa are making an effort to breed resilient coffee plants and implement agroforestry and irrigation strategies. The race is urgent – climate-savvy innovation has become essential to protect livelihoods, maintain supply, and preserve coffee as a global staple.
The UN FAO is helping to make the shift possible in Uganda. For instance, it is supporting farmers by interplanting bananas with coffee trees, creating agroforestry systems that improve crop health and resilience. In Tanzania, the globally important agricultural heritage system on the slopes of Mount
Kilimanjaro showcases traditional coffee-growing techniques that continue to adapt to climate change, using agroforestry and intricate stream- fed garden systems to sustain diverse crops.
Zahedi and Kanamaru argue that “transition is essential, and it needs to be just: protect biodiversity, respect land limits and secure the livelihoods of millions who depend on coffee farming. As climate pressures intensify, only bold, coordinated action across sectors and borders, with agrifood solutions at the heart of climate action and investment, will keep coffee in our future.”
Gordon Feller, based in California, travels the world reporting about innovations that can change our economies and strengthen small enterprises. Since 1980 he’s been publishing reports and magazine articles about coffee / tea innovations on five continents. He is both an ABE Fellow – Japan Fdn and Global Fellow – The Smithsonian Inst. He may be reached at [email protected].
