In a return to its normal green coffee report (GCR) schedule after a delay with its July GCR, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) announced that August coffee prices remained steady as elevated El Niño concerns and tight near-term Arabica supplies supported a mid-month rally.

The London-based organisation also revised supply and demand statistics estimating world coffee production to increase by 4.4% to 183.6 million bags in the current coffee year 2025/26 and global consumption to decline by 0.8%. Furthermore, following four consecutive coffee years of deficit, from 2021/22 to 2024/25, the ICO projects the global coffee market to record a surplus of 3.0 million bags in 2025/26.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 287.29 US cents/lb in August 2026, effectively unchanged from July 2026 (287.26 US cents/lb). While heightened El Niño concerns and tight near-term Arabica supplies supported a mid-month rally, these gains were subsequently reversed as favourable rainfall in Brazil and expectations of increased supply eased upward pressure on prices.

Per the August GCR, the prices of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 1.1% and 0.7% in August 2026 compared to July 2026, averaging 387.46 and 361.31 US cents/lb, respectively. The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential increased 5.7%, from 24.74 to 26.15 US cents/lb between July and August 2026.

The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets expanded by 5.8% to 145.56 US cents/lb in August 2026.

According to the ICO, coffee prices followed an inverted V-shaped pattern in August, with a mid-month rally followed by a sharp correction that left the I-CIP broadly unchanged over the month. Prices initially softened before sustaining a run up from 17 to 25 August, driven by heightened expectations of a strong El Niño event, superimposed on historically low certified Arabica stocks. A sharp correction over two trading sessions on 26 and 27 August then brought the indicator back to its opening level. Importantly, futures remained in backwardation, consistent with tight near-term availability and sustained demand for immediate delivery. The month’s price movements reflected a tension between tight near-term availability and expectations of a substantial surplus in 2026/27.

On the one hand, the commercialisation of Brazil’s record 2026/27 crop progressed more slowly than its size would suggest, limiting the availability of fresh supplies. On the other, the catalyst for the mid-month increase was a marked rise in El Niño expectations at a point in the calendar when the September–October flowering window in Brazil is critical for the 2027/28 Arabica crop. Towards the end of August, the price reversal was supported by reports that storage capacity constraints in Brazil could force producer selling.

Two factors that had dominated market narratives in earlier periods were largely neutral in
August:
• US trade policy: The United States’ 25% tariff on Brazilian imports, effective from 22 July 2026, exempts being green coffee and unflavoured soluble coffee.
• Exchange rates: The Brazilian real remained relatively stable, trading between R $5.10 and R $5.22 to the US dollar.

Conversely, several developments had a bullish impact on prices:
• Heightened El Niño risks: On 13 August, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assigned a greater than 90% probability to a very strong El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere in autumn and winter of 2026/27. It also indicated a 69% probability that its intensity in October–December would exceed that of any event recorded since 1950. The United Kingdom Met Office published comparable projections. These forecasts heightened concerns over weather conditions during Brazil’s forthcoming flowering period, which is critical for the size of the 2027/28 Arabica crop.
• Declining Arabica stocks: ICE-certified Arabica stocks declined without interruption throughout the month, closing at 223,976 bags on 31 August, the lowest level since 1999.
• Disruption in Colombia: A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck western Colombia on 10 August, affecting some producing regions and halting operations at the Pacific port of Buenaventura.
• Slower harvesting in Brazil: Brazil’s harvest lagged behind its historical pace for most of the month. Safras & Mercado, a Brazilian agribusiness consultancy, reported that the 2026/27 harvest was 90% complete as of 12 August, against 97% a year earlier and a five-year average of 94%, with Arabica at 86% versus the previous rate of 95%.

However, other developments exerted downward pressure on prices in August:
• Expectations of a substantial surplus: New forecasts of a substantial 2026/27 surplus were published in August, with Marex projecting a global surplus of 10.5 million bags for crop year 2026/27. Rabobank’s quarterly outlook, released on 30 August, also forecasted a surplus of 8.9 million bags and described the 2026/27 supply-demand balance as comfortable.
• Storage constraints in Brazil: Reports that Brazilian warehouses were approaching capacity raised expectations that producers would accelerate sales to accommodate the incoming crop.
• Favourable rainfall: Above-normal rainfall in Brazil in the closing days of the month was interpreted as broadly favourable for the 2027/28 flowering, partially offsetting the El Niño risk premium accumulated earlier in the month.

Exports of coffee
In July 2026, the ICO reported that global green bean exports totalled 10.76 million bags, up 6.3% as compared with 10.12 million bags in July 2025. Only the Robustas recorded an upturn, with the following dynamics:
• Robusta green bean exports increased by 32.0% to 4.98 million bags in July 2026.
• Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 11.1% to 1.04 million bags in July.
• Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals decreased by 10.0% to 2.46 million bags in July 2026.
• Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 6.7% to 2.27 million bags in July 2026.

The total Arabica exports decreased to 5.78 million bags in July 2026, down 8.9% from 6.35 million bags in July 2025. As a result, the Arabicas’ share of cumulative green bean exports for the first 10 months of coffee year 2025/26 fell to 59.7% from 63.6% over the same period a year earlier.

Global exports of all forms of coffee increased by 3.3% to 12.23 million bags in July 2026 as compared with 11.84 million bags in July 2025. Two of the four regions recorded falls, with the following dynamics:
• Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania were up 17.6% to 4.38 million bags.
• Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 6.7% in July 2026 to 1.90 million bags.
• South America’s exports of all forms of coffee increased by 3.1% to 4.57 million bags.
• Exports of all forms of coffee from the Caribbean, Mexico & Central America decreased by 15.9% to 1.39 million bags.

Green beans were the largest form of coffee exported, accounting for 86.9% of total exports in the first 10 months of coffee year 2025/26, while soluble and roasted coffee represented 12.6% and 0.5%, respectively.

Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 16.7% to 1.4 million bags in July 2026 from 1.68 million bags in July 2025. Vietnam and Brazil were the top two exporters of soluble coffee in July 2026, having shipped 0.38 million and 0.36 million bags, respectively. Exports of roasted beans were up 70.6% in July 2026, reaching 0.07 million bags, compared to 0.04 million bags in July 2025.

Global Consumption
The ICO further reported that world coffee consumption increased by 4.3% to 182.2 million bags in coffee year 2024/25, following a 0.6% rise the previous year. The growth was mainly driven by North America and Europe. In 2025/26, consumption is estimated to decline by 0.8%, partly reflecting a normalisation following the unusually strong growth recorded in 2024/25. While consumption in most regions is expected to remain broadly unchanged, a reduction is estimated for the United States, the world’s largest coffee-consuming country.

Europe remained the largest coffee-consuming region, accounting for 30.1% of the world’s coffee consumption in coffee year 2024/25, 3.3 percentage points ahead of Asia & Oceania. These regions are expected to retain their respective first and second positions in 2025/26. However, South America is estimated to overtake North America to become the third largest coffee-consuming region in the world in coffee year 2025/26.

For the ICO’s full August green coffee report, visit: ico.org/documents.