F&B companies in EMEA will be navigating another challenging year

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Last year was a tumultuous one all around but was especially challenging for the F&B sector in EMEA, due to extreme weather disturbing supply chains, rollercoaster economics, and geopolitical turbulence. The outlook for 2025 may not be as rocky, but it is dubious.
Come Monday, 20 January, the United States will have a new administration when Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th President. Many commentators and analysts predict that following through on campaign promises, Trump will impose new baseline tariffs on foreign imports into the US when he becomes president.
And while this will impact the EMEA F&B sector, it will likely not be disastrous, per an article in Food Navigator.com in December. The article quotes Peter Hatfield, director at commercial, supply chain and operations consultancy, 4C associates, who said, “The evolving US trade deal discussions are poised to generate significant attention, particularly with the potential imposition of 20% tariffs on imports, as suggested by Donald Trump.” He added that “while this may cause uncertainty for trade between the UK, Europe, and the US, its material impact on the food and drinks sector is likely to be limited.”
The impact is deemed minimal because although agri-food exports to the US from Europe have been increasing since 2013, hitting EUR €20 billion in 2023, per the European Commission, it still accounts for only 12% of total agri-food exports from Europe (€228.6 billion), while the UK has a greater percentage at 22% (€51.3 billion).
The positive news for European and UK coffee and tea companies, is that, per the article, the bulk of food and drink exports to the US from Europe are “higher margin products such as meat, alcohol and confectionery that can more readily absorb some cost increases.”
It’s a similar situation for the UK, which among its GBP £2.4 billion in food exports to the US in 2024, two-thirds were whiskey, salmon, and gin, per figures from the Food and Drink Federation (FDF).
President-elect Trump has been vocal about charging the steepest tariffs to China, Canada, and Mexico. This scenario “may open new opportunities, particularly as the US focuses on levelling the playing field with China,” said Hatfield, in the FoodNavigator.com article, adding that “this strategy might pressure the UK and European markets to align with US standards or policies, creating potential gaps in supply chains that UK and European businesses could exploit to enhance trade.”
The challenges for EMEA, of course, are not only with US trade. Another issue is the EU-UK Border Target Operating Model (BTOM) that started rolling out in August 2023, creating additional costs and tensions for manufacturers exporting into the UK from Europe. The BTOM, which establishes safety and security guidelines, added checks on animal and plant products in 2024. Coffee and tea products could be impacted because food items may be subject to certain checks depending on their origin and potential risks for things like contaminants or plant diseases.
The controversial EUDR was also looming, originally set to take effect in December 2024, fortunately, its implementation was pushed back until December 2025, giving European F&B manufacturers a bit of a break.
However, the economic volatility will remain to an extent. Some financial pressures could ease as inflation rates slow, however, “core costs for food and drink manufacturers in the EMEA region will remain high,” per the FoodNavigator article. Consumer spending [in EMEA] is expected to remain cautious this year.
Put on your seatbelts as it seems we’re in for a bumpy ride in 2025.
Vanessa L Facenda, Editor, Tea & Coffee Trade Journal, [email protected]