World Coffee Research and CIAT unveil tool for climate-smart coffee replanting investments

To secure future coffee supplies, millions of aging trees across the world must be replaced. Billions of coffee trees planted decades ago are now past their most productive years – an often overlooked driver of production losses linked to climate shocks, price volatility and the spread of pests and diseases. Without rapid adaptation, land suitable for coffee production could fall 50% by 2050 if no action is taken, putting global supply, farmer livelihoods and industry stability at risk.

A free, open-access tool launched by World Coffee Research (WCR) and the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT equips the coffee sector with actionable predictive insight to identify which coffee varieties are most likely to thrive as climates change, linking the largest real-world dataset on variety performance with advanced climate projections for the first time.

CafeClima translates complex climate and performance data into practical guidance to support efficient, climate-smart renovation decisions across the global coffee sector. “The world needs to replace billions of coffee trees. The only thing more costly than inaction is action without insight,” said Dr. Jennifer “Vern” Long, the CEO of World Coffee Research. “If the industry invests in planting millions of trees today that cannot survive the climate of 2040, we haven’t just lost capital – we’ve lost a crucial decade for coffee sector adaptation.”

CafeClima provides data-driven evidence needed to de-risk coffee renovation investments. It provides guidance needed to ensure that newly planted coffee trees are suitable for today’s climate – and likely climate scenarios for the decades to come.

To sustain current production levels, coffee trees already need replacement on some 4 million hectares, or the equivalent of the coffee-growing footprint in Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia and Ethiopia combined – four of the world’s largest producers. Renovation should be based on climate-change-adapted varieties, which are foundational to building resilient, regenerative farming systems.

The transition to regenerative, climate-resilient coffee systems requires an influx of USD$4 billion over seven years, according to a 2025 investment case by TechnoServe.  The report from the international NGO found that precision investment in regenerative agriculture could lead to a 62% increase in income for farmers, and a 38% decrease in GHG emissions. 

Governments and supply chain actors have invested an estimated USD$1.2 billion in renovation and rehabilitation (R&R) in the last two decades. But these efforts have reached only about 5% of the 11.5 million smallholder farmers who urgently need new coffee trees.

Whether a farmer is replanting 10 trees or a government is replanting millions; renovation is a long-term investment. A coffee tree planted today acts as a 20-year contract with the future climate. Planting the wrong variety can have severe consequences, including lost time, capital, and productivity. Accelerating climate volatility is making it more difficult for farmers to make informed variety choices.

“CafeClima provides governments, development funders and private investors the information they need to make smart renovation investments. While improved genetics are advancing through global coffee tree breeding pipelines, it’s important to make the best decisions with the varieties we have today to reduce risk for farmers,” said WCR’s Dr. Long.

The unique variety performance data is paired with advanced climate projections from the Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT. By linking variety performance data with climate models, CafeClima enables users to visualise not just where coffee may grow in 2050, but which specific varieties are most likely to thrive in those future environments. The tool identifies ‘climate analogs’ – current locations that mirror what a specific region’s climate will look like in 2050 – and offers an estimate of the potential success of a variety based on patterns identified within the ILMVT data.

“CafeClima is a unique decision-support tool that informs climate-resilient coffee combining variety selection with climate information able to reduce future uncertainty,” said Dr. Eric Rahn, an Alliance coffee researcher. “Whether you are an agronomist advising farmers or a sustainability manager overseeing renovation, CafeClima is designed for you.” 

CafeClima reflects the cross-disciplinary, collaborative approach that the climate crisis demands. And it is only the beginning of a new era in global coffee-production management, moving from reactive localised testing to proactive, globalised predictive modelling.

“Integrating climate modelling and global performance testing into future variety development is essential for crop breeding, particularly in perennials like coffee. As our global breeding network builds on what we’ve learned through this project, we can go even further – creating great tasting coffees that simultaneously reduce farmer risk as they make 30-year investments in new trees. With the right tools, we can manage the challenges and bring forth exciting opportunities for coffee farmers around the world,” said Dr. Long.