The Nordic instant coffee market is stagnant
Image: Shutterstock
Consumption of coffee remains high in the Nordic states but as more consumers embrace high quality and specialty coffees, the instant coffee category is stagnating, but perhaps an influx of innovation could jumpstart it again. By Eugene Gerden
The Nordic instant coffee market is experiencing a serious stagnation, as the current dominance of ground coffee in the region has provides limited growth for major instant coffee producers.
In fact, the Nordic region, which consists of such highly developed European nations as Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland and Iceland to some extent, has long been known for its high coffee consumption, substantially exceeding even those in such coffee-drinking nations as Italy and France.
Similar to other EU nations, in recent years, the Nordic coffee market has undergone significant changes and experienced major transformation, which is primarily associated with the rise in popularity of ground coffee, as well as variety premium and specialty coffees. According to official market statistics, currently, the share of ground coffee is estimated at about 70 percent of the entire market, with the share of capsuled coffee and various specialty coffees being estimated in the range of 80 to 85 percent. The remaining 12 to 15 percent of the market accounts for the instant coffee segment, depending on the country. As a rule, the coffee market of each country in the region, including instant coffee segment, is characterised by high level of maturity with small room for a further growth of major players. As for the latter, Nestlé, with its flagship Nescafé brand, remains the leading company in the instant coffee market of the Nordic region.
In terms of Sweden – the major country of the region – according to a recent report prepared by the local coffee maker, Kafferosteriet Löfbergs (which is known as the first edition of the Coffee Report), four out of five Swedes drink coffee regularly, and ground coffee is undisputed as the leading choice, as 72 percent of local citizens drink it. The volume of imports into the country is rather small, mainly accounting for high-quality Arabicas.
Typical Norwegian coffee shop in the city of Oslo. Image: The JetSetting Fashionista
Specialty coffee and instant coffee account for the remaining 28 percent of the market. Instant coffee appeared in Sweden for the first time in 1942 during World War II.
According to the Swedish business paper, Orebronyheter, Swedes consume an average of 7.6 kilos of coffee per person per year, which corresponds to approximately 2.5 cups per day. That makes Sweden the world’s third largest country in terms of per capita coffee consumption.
Among the leading local players are Nestlé, Löfberg (its coffee factory in Karlstad also produces several instant coffee varieties including an espresso instant coffee called Bold Espresso, which is a dark roasted Arabica coffee), and Gevalia.
Finland still leads in consumption
The position of coffee in Finnish food culture is even stronger, which contributes to its record consumption. Coffee consumption in Finland remains the largest in the world. Over the decades, the amount of per capita coffee consumption in the country has remained steady, between 9-10 kilogrammes. Most local coffee companies do not believe that consumption will grow any further, so they seek growth through new premium products. Light-roasted coffee accounts for most of Finland’s market, but the popularity and supply of dark-roasted coffee has increased in recent years. Instant coffee’s share is estimated at 10 to 12 percent of the market.
The Russian-Ukrainian war and its economic consequences has led to a sharp growth of coffee prices in both Finland and Sweden in recent years. According to some Finnish media reports, the current prices for coffee in the local market are among the world’s highest, while a similar situation is also observed in Sweden. According to some independent coffee analysts, the high prices could provide a chance for instant coffee to retain its positions in the local market, mainly due to its more attractive price compared to ground coffee. Although, presently, the prospects for the segment’s further growth remain cloudy.
Salla Korpivaara, a senior consultant at Euromonitor International, said instant coffee in the Nordics remains a marginal category of the market. “Per capita consumption of instant coffee is more than 25 times smaller than fresh coffee. Traditionally, instant coffee has been used for special occasions, such as travelling, hiking, at summer cottages or for instance baking. I attach the volume growth for 2023 and forecast CAGR.”
She added that like in many other FMCG categories, “we saw a peak in retail sales during the pandemic when people were working from their summer houses. The growth, however, quickly returned to a normal, negative trend. In recent years, coffee beans and capsules are taking market space from instant coffee. We do know that instant coffee in the Nordics is more often consumed by the younger generation and they have a more positive perception of the category than older generations. This might be connected to videos on social media where people are preparing coffee cocktails with instant coffee.”
Little’s flavoured instant coffee has launched in several markets. Image: Little’s
According to Korpivaara, an impetus for the segment could be provided by more active launches of innovative products into the market, while some activities in this field are already ongoing. She said there has been little product innovation in instant coffee in recent years but there are some premium examples:
- Little’s flavoured instant coffee has launched in several markets and there is a wider trend for flavoured instant standard coffee (not mixes);
- Fairtrade, premium and organic products are being launched from time to time.
Given the high inflation the past few years, Korpivaara noted another trend is the rise of private label. “Coffee prices increased by double digit growth in 2022, slowing down a little in 2023, we see that consumers have been downtrading here.”
According to analysts, there was a ‘renaissance’ of instant coffee in the Nordic region between 2015 and 2019 when, according to data of Nestlé and some other global majors, the demand for instant coffee in some countries of the region – such as Finland – grew at 5 to 6 percent in some years and even higher in others. Thus, there were serious expectations that such a trend would continue to be observed during the 2020s. Still, a sharp rise in popularity of ground and specialty coffees, especially among the young, and the highest growth in coffee shops since 2010 in all of Europe, put an end to the hopes of further growth of the instant coffee segment, at least with the same rates during the next decade.
Norway and Denmark: same region but consumption habits differ
Coffee is considered a national drink in Norway, although the consumption of most of its varieties in this country is lower than those in Finland. According to the Norwegian Coffee Information agency, consumption in Norway among coffee drinkers is around four to five cups per day. Of these, the share of instant coffee also does not exceed 15 percent of the market.
Since the early 2000s, the consumption of coffee in Norway has been slowly decreasing, which affects both ground and instant coffee varieties.
Surprisingly, the current situation in the coffee market of Denmark is quite different, as, in contrast to other Nordic nations, there is a generally stable growth of demand for instant coffee among local customers.
Swedish Löfbergs organic instant coffee, one of the most popular instant coffee varieties in the Nordic region. Image Löfbergs
Presently, sales of instant coffee products in Denmark show serious growth because it has become the preferred coffee model among many young people. According to a study from 2024 of the Danish magazine, Kaffe Drikke, the best-selling coffee brand in Denmark is Nescafé, which has long been popular among Danes. In addition, other instant coffee brands, such as Merrild and Jacobs, are also popular in Denmark. Currently, instant coffee accounts for about a quarter of total coffee sales in Denmark, with younger people often preferring more exotic coffee varieties, while older people often stick with more classic varieties.
Euromonitor International analysts expect the demand for instant coffee in the Nordic region will remain generally stable within the next several years, although further growth of the market will be weak, while the demand for premium and specialty coffee will grow.
A spokesperson for Euromonitor International summed up the instant coffee segment in the Nordic states, noting, that overall, instant coffee is projected to see a flat off-trade volume CAGR in the future. “This is expected to be mainly due to instant coffee mixes, which offer more product variety and attributes, such as flavours. Instant standard coffee, on the other hand, is unlikely to see much new product development to stimulate interest. However, it is worth nothing that instant coffee mixes are predicted to see off-trade volume growth, before a level of maturity sets in. Meanwhile, instant standard coffee is expected to see declines until margins pick-up, albeit from a reduced sales base.”
- Eugene Gerden is an international freelance writer who specialises in covering the global coffee, tea and agricultural industries. He works for several industry titles and may be reached at [email protected].
